International air cargo growth continues to be highly reliant on cross border e-commerce traffic originating from China. We estimate that about 35% of international air cargo currently consists of express small package and cross border e-commerce consolidations – up from about 26% five years ago. Future air cargo growth expectations continue to ride on cross-border e-commerce rather than traditional global supply chain traffic. We forecast international air cargo growth of between 2.8% and 5.5% for the next five years. This article discusses growth drivers and downside risks.
Posts tagged as “air freight”
The decline in US air trade with China is being compensated by cross border e-commerce. After declining 11% in 2022, cross border e-commerce volumes have grown 55% in 2023 and are now 38% higher than in 2021. This increase is evident in South China and Hong Kong air cargo traffic into the US.
Chinese cargo traffic data indicates an e-commerce driven surge in year-end air freight volumes not reflected in trade data. Due to value reporting thresholds trade data does a poor job of tracking cross border e-commerce volumes which by some accounts could account for a fifth of international air cargo volumes. Chinese international air cargo shows strong growth over the last three months.