Sufficient, reliable, and affordable shipping capacity is crucial for the viability of import and export businesses. Over the past three years most of that was missing due to congestion, shutdowns, blank sailings, and obscene shipping rates. Fortunately, things are improving, but problems remain, particularly with regard to connectivity in smaller markets. Under these circumstances there is merit in industry and Government considering taking control of feeder capacity to support ongoing connections for exporters and importers into hubs where connectivity has been largely unaffected over the past years.
Trade Data Service
Airfreight is primarily an industrial tool, with roughly three quarters of airfreight traffic linked to the various stages of production. Global manufacturing and airfreight tend to move in sync. Based on the outlook for manufacturing we expect US airfreight exports to decline by about 7% and imports to drop by about 3% in 2023.
China accounts for almost a quarter of the value of worldwide imports of manufactured goods. That is significantly more than any other country. Germany, by contrast, accounts for about 8%, the US 7% and Japan about 5%. The European Union and the United Kingdom account for about the same amount as China, but almost two thirds of this trade is between countries within the bloc. While China’s weight in the world economy has increased, this increase has been uneven and the dependence on China varies significantly across economies.
Transatlantic air cargo was a real bright spot in 2022, both in terms of volumes and market rates. Containerised shipping did not do as well in volume terms, but rates have remained strong even as they have tumbled back down to earth in other markets. This analysis discusses the interplay between demand, capacity, and the relative competitive position between air and sea freight and how this is likely to evolve over the next year.
China is the primary source of cross border e-commerce worldwide, on average accounting for about one third of the origin of all purchases. Growth has stalled over the last three years, with high transportation costs and lack of capacity an impediment to growth.
Apparel and footwear accounts for about 9% of US airfreight imports and about 5% of US containerised imports by sea. China is the single largest market, but growth has come from Vietnam, Cambodia, India and Bangladesh. Air has a share of roughly 6% of the weight and 18% of the value of shipments, but subject to large fluctuations and differences between market.
Over the past decade years meat exports accounted between four and six percent of the value of Australian exports. Exports of fresh and frozen meat peaked in 2019 and have declined 20% mainly due to a drop in trade with China.
China to Europe rail import and export volumes are down 10% and 56%, respectively, for the first 10 months of 2022. This follows several years of phenomenal growth, where both imports and exports into the 27 Members States of the European Union (EU) grew by 27% annually.
Understanding what drives mode choice is key to understanding the demand for freight transportation capacity, in particular for air cargo and long-distance rail, where small shifts to and from ships can have big impacts. This article looks at what drives the choice of air, sea, road and rail transport.
This first article looks at the things that shape our thinking about the prospects for world trade in goods: the markets that matter, how trade relates to economic activity, the importance of air, sea, road and rail and the factors that drive or destroy growth.